For the 11 months through November, the average price of single-family homes was up 4.7%, and condominiums were off 0.9%, year-over-year: no surprise. After four years of average price appreciation of better than 10%/year, the market needs a rest.
For starters, 2016 witnessed the Salesforce Tower rise, the Millennium Tower lean, the Transbay Terminal move forward, Central SOMA plan take shape, CPMC Hospital top out, Treasure Island infrastructure work begin, the Rockwell welcome its first occupants, Dogpatch come of age, Candlestick Point get a green light, the Warriors Stadium win a judgement…………… and the San Francisco beat goes on.
There are no Experts!
You can say that again. The political experts were dead wrong about the presidential election, right? Forget about panels of experts who want to tell you what will happen in 2017. No one can time the market; certainly not so-called experts. Clients should ask why they are thinking about buying or selling. If they are going to stay in San Francisco for at least five years, then it is a good time to buy. If they have a life-changing reason to sell, then it is the good/right time to sell.
Looking to 2017
Given that there are are no experts, and my non-expert opinion is worth at most two cents, here goes. Single-family home appreciation in 2017 will exceed that of condominiums. No stretch here since this has been so for the last 20+ years. Price appreciation for both categories will continue to slip while condominium prices will continue to be supported by empty-nesters and pied a terre buyers who will continue to compete with people who work and live in the City. The Millennium Tower will continue to be a media darling.
The Pulse of the Market book (edited Pulses from 2005 to 2015) is available in paperback and Kindle at Amazon.com. It offers insights and perspectives on what has made San Francisco residential real estate tick in the past 10 years. Let me know if you would like a personal autograph.