Introduction
In November 2006, I devoted Pulse 47 (“Changing the World”) to the new Westfield Centre San Francisco at 5th and Mission Streets, discussing its impact on the downtown area. To quote myself (wow, is that egotistical!)

“According to Mayor Gavin Newsom, this new Centre expects 25 million visitors a year and $600 million in annual mall revenues. Bloomingdales and Westfield are influencing the future and in the process are changing the world. They are transforming the mid-market corridor of San Francisco. They are betting a lot of money, and they are smart people, not gamblers.”

By all accounts, the Centre has been very, very successful since its opening almost a year ago.

The Transbay Transit Center
Like the Westfield Centre, the Transbay Center (see street location map below, © Transit Bay Center 2006) will have a major (positive) impact on the greater South of Market St. area and probably the entire City. The Transit Tower as now conceived is not currently planned to have any residential units itself. Nonetheless, it will affect residential real estate throughout the City. More on that later.

In November of 2006, The Transbay Joint Powers Authority launched a worldwide developer/architectural competition for the Center. This past week the Hines/Pelli Clarke Pelli Architects team was named the winner. The goal is to create “the Grand Central Station of the West,” replacing the Transbay terminal now located at First and Mission Streets, and centralize the region’s transportation network under one roof – AC Transit, Caltrain, MUNI, Golden Gate Transit, SamTrans, Greyhound, BART, WestCat and the future California High-Speed Rail.

Part of the dream is to build a California high-speed rail system that connects San Francisco with Sacramento to the north and Los Angeles/San Diego to the south. Trains would travel at 220 miles per hour, similar to the rail systems in Europe and Japan. The Transbay plan also include extending Caltrain 1.3 miles underground from its current terminus at 4th and Townsend Streets to the proposed Transit Center. For those who commut to Silicon Valley, they would be able to catch a train at the Transbay C enter, rather than at 4th and Townsend.

The map below depicts the Transit Center at the top and the underground extension connecting to the Caltrain Station at the bottom.

This grand plan is going to take some time. Construction is tentatively scheduled to begin in 2009 and finish in 2014. In addition to the Transit Center, there will be a 1200-foot (80-floor) glass-wrapped tower rising above the Terminal. As now conceived, the Tower will include 1.6 million square feet of commercial office space; likely to be some of the most expensive commercial space in the City. Some of the planned office space may be reconfigured into residential space, “if required,” but the current thinking calls for no residential condominiums.

One of the unique attributes of the plan is a 5.4 acre (225,000+ sq. ft.) elevated park on top of the terminal complex. That’s a big park! An artist’s rendering of the Transit Center and Tower is depicted below.

In the Meantime
In order to serve (bus) passengers during the demolition of the old Transbay Terminal and the construction of the new Transbay Transit Center, a “temporary terminal facility” is planned between Howard and Folsom, and Main and Beale Streets. This site is catty-corner to the new Infinity at the corner of Main and Folsom. The outline below shows where the temporary center will be built. The Infinity is the tower at the top of the picture and just to the left of the area outlined.

The design of the temporary facility is expected to be completed by March 2008, about the time that owners start occupying The Infinity. Construction of the terminal is scheduled to start in the fall of 2008. Once this temporary facility has been replaced by the new Transbay Center, the site will be available for construction of another building (the site is now zoned for a 165’ building height).

Below is an outline of the temporary terminal area.

It’s Still Early
None of this is set in stone, always the situation in the early phases of such developments. Not only may preliminary designs change, but this Transit Center and Tower may never get funded nor built. Nonetheless it’s an audacious development, and although there are many private, City and state interests pulling in different directions, I believe it will get built in some form. And while this development goes through its planning stages, another beauty, the Millennium Tower, is now rising some 60 stories at 301 Mission, abutting Beale, and just to the east of the existing transit terminal. It will contain 419 condominiums and upscale amenities. If the new Transit Tower is built, it will likely be built on the western edge of the Transit Center. At times it may cast shadows on those Millennium condominiums located on the western side of the Millennium Tower. All the more reasons to conduct research when considering a purchase in the south of Market area.

I think the overall impact of the Transbay Transit Center and Tower will have an enormous positive impact on residential real estate throughout the city of San Francisco and not just in a few neighborhoods south of Market St. Think of the millions of people that would be able to visit the city with much more ease, not only from the surrounding Bay Area communities, but if the high-speed rail system gets built, also the folks who live in Sacramento, Los Angeles, and San Diego. They can hop on a train and be here in 2 to 4 hours, while bypassing airport hassles.

The Transbay Center and Tower will change the neighborhood dynamics of Mission Street from Beale to 2^nd Street. Along with the greening of Folsom Boulevard, this whole area will be upgraded in just a few years.

The Chronicle ran an article a few days ago featuring the soon-to-open Barneys just off Union Square. The article commented that "Considering how small San Francisco is, we are second strongest for the retail market in the country," meaning second only to New York in gross sales for many retailers, said Vikki Johnson, a principal at the San Francisco real estate firm Johnson Hoke Ltd., which is focused on Union Square. That’s one big statement, and if true, is further justification that the business and residential outlook for San Francisco is quite rosy.

The easier it is for people to get here and enjoy pleasant surroundings while they are here, the more they want to come and spend on consumer goods, dining, entertainment and residences. I think the Transbay Center and Tower are buffo, in case you couldn’t tell.

If your friends/associates would like to receive future Pulses, or have a more personalized conversation with a true market expert, just send me an email. And if I can assist you with any real estate needs, just let me know.

If it is not an area in which I have specific expertise, I know people who do, and I would be happy to be of service.